紅利+成長啞鈴策略：港股震盪市的攻防兼備配置解法

I. Hong Kong Stocks in Turbulence: Why Traditional Allocations Fall Short

Entering 2026, the Hong Kong stock market is presenting a distinctly choppy picture. On one hand, global liquidity expectations remain fluid, compounded by geopolitical uncertainties, making it difficult for the index to trend in a single direction. On the other hand, sector rotation has been extremely fast. Technology stocks that were strong yesterday may face profit-taking today, while low-valuation, high-dividend banks and energy stocks quietly strengthen when risk-off sentiment rises.

For ordinary investors, this environment is most troubling: chasing highs often leads to being trapped, and switching positions frequently can result in losses on both ends. Traditional single-style allocations, whether fully betting on growth or fully embracing dividends, struggle to deliver an ideal risk-return profile in a volatile market.

Against this backdrop, the barbell strategy for Hong Kong stocks has once again entered investors' field of vision. The so-called "barbell" is heavy at both ends and light in the middle: one end allocates to defensive dividend assets, while the other end allocates to aggressive growth assets, with relatively little allocated to the middle ground. The subtlety of this structure is that no matter how market styles shift, one end can always provide support, thus achieving a balance between offense and defense in a volatile market.

II. The Core of the Barbell Strategy: The Binary Complementarity of the Dividend Factor and Growth

The underlying logic of Hong Kong's barbell strategy originates from the low correlation between the dividend factor and growth style. The dividend factor focuses on dividend yield, payout stability, and cash flow quality. Such companies are usually in mature industries, with steady profits and low valuation volatility. Growth style, on the other hand, focuses on revenue growth, industry space, and technological barriers. These companies are often in emerging tracks, with high stock price elasticity but also severe volatility.

When market risk appetite declines, funds tend to flow into dividend assets, using dividend returns as a safety cushion. When risk appetite recovers, growth sectors attract capital back due to their earnings elasticity. The alternating performance of the two exactly forms the "seesaw" effect of the two ends of the barbell.

More importantly, the barbell strategy is not simply a "half-half" allocation, but a dynamic adjustment based on the macroeconomic environment and valuation levels. For example, when the spread between the dividend yield of dividend assets and the risk-free rate widens to historical highs, the weight of the dividend end can be appropriately increased. Conversely, when valuations in growth sectors correct to a reasonable range and industry trends are clear, the growth allocation is increased.

III. Backtest Verification: Risk-Return Characteristics of the Binary Portfolio

To test the actual effect of the barbell strategy in Hong Kong stocks, we constructed a "dividend defense + growth offense" binary portfolio with monthly rebalancing, and compared it with the Hang Seng Index, a pure dividend portfolio, and a pure growth portfolio. The backtesting period covers multiple bull and bear cycles over the past decade, including the 2018 trade frictions, the 2020 liquidity shock, the 2022 rate-hiking cycle, and the volatile recovery since 2024.

1. Maximum Drawdown: The Barbell Strategy Significantly Outperforms

Under extreme market conditions, the maximum drawdown of a pure growth portfolio often exceeds 40%, while a pure dividend portfolio, though experiencing smaller drawdowns, tends to underperform the index in liquidity-driven bull markets. The barbell strategy, through the hedging effect of the two ends, caps its maximum drawdown within 25%. Especially during the 2022 global rate hikes, the Hang Seng Index experienced a maximum drawdown of nearly 35%, while the barbell strategy, supported by the dividend end, saw a maximum drawdown of only about 22%.

2. Sharpe Ratio: A Clear Improvement in Cost-Effectiveness

The Sharpe ratio measures the excess return obtained per unit of risk taken. Backtest data show that the Sharpe ratio of the barbell strategy has remained stable between 0.8 and 1.2 over the long term, higher than the 0.4 to 0.6 of the Hang Seng Index and also higher than the 0.5 to 0.7 of a pure growth portfolio. This implies that through barbell allocation, investors can achieve a higher unit risk-adjusted return while bearing similar fluctuations.

3. Applicable Market Conditions: Most Beneficial in Volatility and Style Rotation

The barbell strategy is most suitable for the current situation in Hong Kong stocks: "volatility plus rapid rotation." In a one-way bull or bear market, the barbell strategy may not beat a single-style extreme allocation. However, in an environment where style switches are frequent and the index lacks a clear trend, the "betting on both ends" approach of the barbell strategy can smooth the net value curve and avoid sustained drawdowns caused by betting on the wrong style.

IV. Practical Construction: How to Build a Hong Kong Dividend-Growth Allocation?

1. Dividend End: Focus on High-Dividend Targets in Stock Connect

The Hong Kong Stock Connect barbell strategy backtest shows that the selection of the dividend end should balance dividend yield and payout sustainability. We prioritize companies with a dividend yield of more than 5%, no dividend suspensions over the past three years, and stable operating cash flow. Focus industries are energy, banking, telecommunications, and utilities. These industries inherently possess defensive attributes, and their valuations have already largely reflected pessimistic expectations, leaving limited downside.

2. Growth End: Lock in Leaders of Prosperous Tracks

For the growth end, we focus on sectors that align with industry trends, such as artificial intelligence, new energy, innovative drugs, and high-end manufacturing. It is important to note that the growth end is more volatile, so it should not be overly concentrated in a single industry. Diversification across multiple tracks can reduce non-systematic risk. At the same time, the holding period for the growth end should be longer than that of the dividend end, avoiding frequent trading due to short-term fluctuations.

3. Position Adjustment: Dynamic Rebalancing Instead of Static Holding

The barbell strategy is not static. We recommend using monthly rebalancing as the baseline cadence and setting trigger conditions: when the monthly gain of one end exceeds 15%, reduce that end and increase the other end to achieve disciplined rebalancing. Backtests show that this rule-based adjustment approach effectively avoids emotional trading while capturing mean-reversion opportunities in both ends.

V. Quantitative Technology: A Robust Engine with Profitability as the Outcome

In investment practice, many investors misunderstand "quantitative" as complex mathematical models and black-box operations. In fact, effective quantitative technology should be a practical tool whose ultimate result is profitability.

When we construct the Hong Kong barbell strategy, our quantitative models do not pursue the complexity of the models themselves, but rather focus on the core goal of "generating positive returns in different market environments." Specifically, we achieve this through the following three steps:

• Data Cleaning and Factor Validity Testing: Eliminate targets with financial fraud or insufficient liquidity to ensure the purity of factor exposure.
• Portfolio Optimization and Risk Constraints: While controlling industry concentration and maximum individual stock weights, maximize the portfolio's expected returns.
• Live Tracking and Parameter Self-Adaptation: Review strategy performance monthly. If it underperforms the benchmark for three consecutive months, a parameter recalibration process is automatically triggered to avoid strategy invalidation.

It must be emphasized that the entire quantitative process revolves around "profitability results." We do not pursue over-engineering or pile up meaningless indicators. All model parameter adjustments are based solely on whether they can improve risk-adjusted returns. This is the core difference between us and other quantitative institutions - technology is the means, and profitability is the end.

VI. Rebalancing Constraints and Common Pitfalls

1. Trading Cost Control

Hong Kong Stock Connect trading involves stamp duty, commissions, and exchange costs. Frequent rebalancing will erode returns. Backtesting shows that if the rebalancing frequency is increased from monthly to weekly, the annual cost will increase by about 2.3%, which is enough to offset the excess returns brought by the barbell strategy. Therefore, we firmly adhere to the monthly rebalancing baseline and do not make temporary adjustments unless extreme risk events are triggered.

2. Avoid Turning the Barbell into a Lever Bar

The key to the barbell strategy lies in the balance of weights between the two ends. If the growth end is increased to 80% out of greed, the portfolio will degenerate into a high-volatility growth stock portfolio and lose its defensive function. Conversely, if the dividend end is too heavy, it will significantly underperform the index in a liquidity-driven bull market. We recommend maintaining the weight ratio between dividends and growth at 50:50 to 40:60 under normal circumstances.

3. Beware of Dividend Traps

High dividends do not necessarily mean a margin of safety. Some companies may have their stock prices drop sharply, passively pushing up dividend yields, but their fundamentals have deteriorated, or their payout capacity is not sustainable. In the Hong Kong Stock Connect barbell strategy backtest, we found that if the source of dividend yield is not screened (e.g., excluding targets with excessively high debt ratios or negative operating cash flow), the portfolio's maximum drawdown worsens by about 5 percentage points.

VII. Outlook: Opportunities in the Second Half of 2026 and the Adaptability of the Barbell Strategy

Looking ahead to the second half of 2026, it is highly likely that Hong Kong stocks will remain volatile, but structural opportunities are not scarce. On one hand, the path of the Federal Reserve's policy remains unclear, and the suppression of Hong Kong stock valuations by dollar liquidity may continue episodically. On the other hand, after the normalization of internet platform regulation, business models have returned to a growth trajectory, and sectors related to artificial intelligence, such as computing power, applications, and terminals, are expected to remain active. At the same time, high-dividend central state-owned enterprises still have room for valuation repair under the "Chinese Special Valuation" logic.

For ordinary investors, Hong Kong dividend-growth allocation is not a static portfolio, but an offensive-defensive system that requires dynamic adjustment according to market conditions. The essence of the barbell strategy is "not putting all eggs in one basket," while avoiding the dullness caused by over-diversification. Through monthly rebalancing and disciplined rebalancing, investors can control drawdowns while sharing the rotation returns of different styles.

Key Reminders:

• Value Rebalancing: Review positions monthly and adjust when the deviation from the target weight exceeds 5%.
• Control Emotions: Do not operate emotionally based on short-term gains or losses; trust statistical patterns rather than intuition.
• Long-Term Perspective: The barbell strategy may lag in one-way markets, but its cumulative returns across bull and bear cycles remain robust.

In conclusion, the barbell strategy for Hong Kong stocks provides a complete offensive-defensive allocation solution for volatile markets through the binary complementarity of dividends and growth. The underlying quantitative technology, guided by profitability outcomes, translates the strategy into a repeatable and verifiable investment process. For investors seeking steady growth in Hong Kong stocks, this may be the key to navigating the volatile cycle.